DXY Weekly FX Forecasts

EUR/USD: The US is Not Very Good, Europe is Not Very Bad ● On Friday, June 5, the Dollar Index (DXY) hit a three-week low, while the euro showed its largest weekly gain against the dollar in a year. This was due to the US not performing as well as expected and Europe not faring as poorly. ● Disap.....

EUR/USD: Inflation in the US – Everything is Going According to Plan ● Last week, specifically on Thursday, 27 June, the dollar received support from positive macroeconomic data from the US. The Department of Commerce reported that according to the final estimate, the US GDP grew by 1.4% in Q1, ag.....

EUR/USD: Hawkish Sentiments of the Fed ● As expected, the key day of last week was Wednesday, 12 June. After the publication of inflation data in the USA, the dollar came under strong pressure. Fresh figures showed that in May, the overall inflation rate (CPI) in annual terms decreased to 3.3% com.....

EUR/USD: Awaiting a Turbulent Week ● Recall that Monday, 27 May was a holiday in the US. However, on Tuesday, dollar bulls took control, and the DXY Index started to rise, bolstered by a significant increase in the US Consumer Confidence Index (from 97.5 to 102.0 against a forecast of 96.0). Conse.....

EUR/USD: The Battle of Europe and US PMIs ● Overall, the past week favoured the dollar, but the advantage over the European currency was minimal. If you look at where the EUR/USD pair was on 15 May, it returned to this zone on 24 May, regaining the losses of recent days. Recall that the report fro.....

EUR/USD: Weak Inflation = Weak USD ● The American currency suffered two significant blows last week. Although these were not knockdowns, let alone knockouts, these minor shocks pushed the DXY Dollar Index down from 105.26 to 104.20 points, and EUR/USD up from 1.0766 to 1.0895. The first blow came.....

EUR/USD: Inflation Persists, US GDP Growth Slows ● The US economy remains the most powerful on the planet. Moreover, its share of global GDP has reached a nearly two-decade high of 26.3%. According to the IMF, from 2018, the European Union's share decreased by 1.4%, Japan's by 2.1%, while the Unit.....

EUR/USD: A Pause After the Rally ● Last week, 60% of analysts adopted a neutral stance in their previous forecast and were proven absolutely correct. EUR/USD had a calm week, even boring at times, moving along the 1.0650 mark within the narrow corridor of 1.0600-1.0690. Market participants were r.....

EUR/USD: The Dollar Soars ● Last week saw two significant events: the first shocked market participants, while the second passed without surprises. Let's examine the details in order. Since mid-2022, consumer prices in the US have been declining. In July 2022, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was a.....

EUR/USD: The Dollar Weakness Puzzle ● What transpired with the EUR/USD pair last week? It behaved as expected on Monday, 01 April. However, starting from Tuesday, the situation deviated. Let's delve into the details. On the first day of April, data on business activity in the US industrial sector .....

EUR/USD: Switzerland Strengthens the Dollar ● The key event of the past week was undoubtedly the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on March 20. As expected, the American Central Bank unanimously decided to maintain the key interest rate at its highest level in .....

EUR/USD: ECB Rhetoric Against the Dollar ● Data on consumer inflation (CPI) in the US, published on February 13, exceeded expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also indicated a rise in industrial inflation in the country. However, despite this, the American currency failed to gain additiona.....

EUR/USD: A Week of Mixed Data ● The macroeconomic statistics released last week were mixed in both the United States and the Eurozone. As a result, EUR/USD failed to break through either the 1.0700 support or the 1.0800 resistance, continuing to move within a narrow sideways channel. ● The US dol.....

EUR/USD: Dollar Dips but Promises a Rebound ● Last week saw a scarcity of significant macroeconomic data. In anticipation of new drivers, market participants analysed the state of the US labour market and statements from Federal Reserve officials. Data released on February 2 revealed that the numb.....

EUR/USD: Dollar Strengthening Prospects Increase ● Throughout January, a series of indicators: GDP, employment, and retail sales, consistently highlighted the strength of the US economy. The threat of recession diminished, and it became evident that the high interest rate did not significantly hi.....

EUR/USD: US Economy Delivers Surprises ● The two most significant events last week occurred on Thursday, January 25. On this day, the European Central Bank (ECB) held a meeting, and preliminary GDP data for the US for Q4 2023 was published. As expected, the ECB left the key interest rate unchanged.....

  Traditionally, we publish currency forecasts from leading global financial institutions at the turn of the outgoing and incoming years. Having maintained this practice for several years, it enables us to not only peer into the future but also to reflect on past predictions by experts and evaluat.....

EUR/USD: Dovish Fed Reversal The fate of EUR/USD was determined by two events last week: the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), which took place a day later. As a result, the euro em.....

EUR/USD: December – A Formidable Month for the Dollar Who will start loosening the grip on their monetary policies earlier, the Federal Reserve (FRS) or the European Central Bank (ECB)? The discussion on this topic remains active, as clearly seen in the quotes' charts. The statistics from the pas.....

EUR/USD: Day of Thanksgiving and Week of Contradictions Reminder that the American currency came under significant pressure on November 14 following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the USA. In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased from 0.4% to 0% (m/m), and on .....

EUR/USD: November 14 - a Dark Day for the Dollar In the previous review, the overwhelming majority of experts expressed opinions favouring further weakening of the American currency. This prediction came to fruition. The Consumer Inflation report in the United States, published on Tuesday, Novem.....

EUR/USD: How Mr. Powell Aided the Dollar The past week witnessed few significant events, which reflected in EUR/USD pair's fluctuations around 1.0700. Notably, there was a slight increase in the Dollar Index (DXY), starting at 105.05 and reaching a peak of 105.97 by Friday, November 10. This grow.....

EUR/USD: A Bad Week for the Dollar Throughout the week, the Dollar Index DXY, along with EUR/USD, appeared to be riding the waves, moving up and down. At the beginning of the week, preliminary data for Europe was released. In terms of annual growth, the GDP of the Eurozone in the third quarter wa.....

EUR/USD: Awaiting the Pair at 1.0200? Having started the past week on a positive note, EUR/USD approached a significant support/resistance level at the 1.0700 zone on Tuesday, October 24, before reversing and sharply declining. According to several analysts, the correction of the DXY Dollar Inde.....

EUR/USD: No Interest Rate Hikes from the Fed and ECB in the Near Future? Starting from the last days of September, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a sideways channel. Macroeconomic data released last week did not provide a clear advantage to either the U.S. or the European cu.....

EUR/USD: Inflation Drives Trends At the beginning of last week, the Dollar Index (DXY) continued its decline that began on October 3, while global equity markets experienced growth. The dovish stance of Federal Reserve officials and the falling yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were driving factors......

EUR/USD: Will the Pair Reach 1:1 Parity? Throughout 2023, the U.S. economy has effectively withstood aggressive interest rate hikes. The market-anticipated recession has yet to materialize, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish monetary stance. This has led to a sharp increase in T.....

EUR/USD: Correction is Not a Trend Reversal Yet The dynamics of the EUR/USD pair in the past week were atypical. In a standard scenario, combating inflation against the backdrop of a strong economy and a healthy labour market leads to an increase in the central bank's interest rate. This, in turn.....

EUR/USD: Verbal Interventions by the Federal Reserve Support the Dollar In previous reviews, we extensively discussed the verbal interventions made by Japanese officials who aim to bolster the yen through their public statements. This time, similar actions have been taken by FOMC (Federal Open Ma.....

EUR/USD: September 13 and 14 - Key Days of the Week For the eighth consecutive week, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rising, while EUR/USD is declining. The currency pair has retreated to levels last seen three months ago, settling in the 1.0700 zone. It was only the dollar bulls starting to lock .....